Press release of the BCT Executive Board meeting held 27 November 2013
In the beginning of its works, the Board considered recent trends in the international economic environment, notably the OECD updated forecasts regarding world economic growth for 2013 and 2014. These forecasts were reviewed downwards to 2.7% and 3.6%, respectively, in line mainly with the noticeable slower growth in main emerging countries, which would have a negative impact on activity pace in advanced countries. Hence, the main central banks have maintained their accommodating monetary policies targeting the support of economic activity, which has positively marked trends in main world stock exchange indexes.
As for the national economy, the Board reviewed the latest economic growth indicators over the third quarter of 2013 during which the GDP went up, according to the National Statistics Institute, by 2.4% in constant prices and in annual shift, against 3.2% for the previous quarter as well as the same period of the previous year. This brought the growth rate to 2.8% for the first nine months of the current year. This slower growth pace is attributable to the shrinking recorded at the level of the agricultural sector (-3.3%) and that of non-manufacturing industries (-0.4%), mainly the mining sector, in addition to the virtual stagnation of manufacturing industries (+0.2%).
The weakening activity pace was relatively offset thanks not only to the positive trend recorded in the market services sector, notably transports and telecommunications, but also to non-market activities related to administrative services. Taking account of this trend, the Board noted that the 3.6% to 3% updating in the growth rate expected for 2013 remains somewhat optimistic since its achievement requires no less than a 3.7% growth over the fourth quarter of this year.
Moreover, and apart from the weak growth pace brought about by a flat investment as reflected by the drop in imports of capital goods and the slower pace of medium and long term loans over the first ten months of the current year against a 13% increase in FDI over the same period, the Board expressed its concern about data on employment that show an ongoing increase in higher education graduates’ unemployment rate by 1.9% percentage point over the third quarter of 2013, posting 33.5% or 248 thousand people, despite a slight decrease in the overall unemployment rate compared to the previous quarter, back to 15.7%.
On the other hand, the Board noted that the stability of trends in the consumer price index at the 5.8% level for the second month in a row in annual shift in October 2013 should not hide the accelerated core inflation pace (excluding prices of controlled and fresh products) which reached 6.9% over the same month against 6.8% last September. Besides, the ongoing current deficit worsening (6.5% of GDP for the first ten months of the current year against 6.9% a year earlier), influenced by the trade deficit despite a better exports pace and slower imports amplified needs for external financing et further recourse to tapping operations on foreign currency reserves. These posted 11,673 MTD corresponding to 107 days of imports on 25 November 2013, against 9,486 MTD and 91 days on the same date of 2012.
As for trends in monetary indicators, the Board noticed an ongoing improvement of liquidity since the beginning of last September. This brought about a certain drop in the volume of BCT interventions with respect to monetary policy operations ranging from 4,386 MTD on average over October to 4,112 MTD on 27 November. The average interest rate on the money market oscillated, over this period, between 4.66% and 4.75%.
While considering indicators as regards the banking sector activity over the first ten months of the current year, the Board noted that the outstanding balance of deposits resumed its evolution pace recorded over the same period of 2012 (5.2%) against a pursued deceleration of financing of the economy compared to the same period of 2012 (5.8% vs. 7.8%).
Considering these trends, the Board insisted anew on the seriousness of persisting pressure on domestic and external financial balances and its negative fallouts on the growth outlook and employment in the forthcoming years. This makes it imperative for all to be highly aware of the need to found political and security stability and undertake urgent measures helping to monitor trends in deficits of the external sector and public finances as well as the runaway inflation. It also recommends speeded up establishment of structural reforms related to financial and fiscal systems, to subsidies policy and public investments within the framework of a medium-term development plan allowing for a better visibility both for economic agents and foreign partners, and decided to keep unchanged the key interest rate of the Central Bank.
(For further data on the economic and financial situation, please refer to the Central Bank of Tunisia website: www.bct.gov.tn )
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Press release of the Central Bank of Tunisia Executive Board meeting held 4 September 2013
Press release of the Central Bank of Tunisia board meeting held 31 July 2013
Press release of the Central Bank of Tunisia board meeting held 26 June 2013
Press release of the Central Bank of Tunisia board meeting held 27 May 2013.
Press release of the Central Bank of Tunisia board meeting held 30 April 2013.
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News release of the Central Bank of Tunisia on external debt situation and outlook.
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Issue of a debenture loan for an amount of 25 billion yens on the japanese market
Further information of the Central Bank of Tunisia
Finalizing of Tunisia debenture loan worth USD 485 million with the guarantee of the United States of America
THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SITUATION: MAIN TRENDS UP TO 26 JUNE 2012.
Finalization of US$ 500 million Quatari borrowing in the form of a private placement :
The Central Bank of Tunisia informs that it has finalized on 18 April 2012 a borrowing from Qatar in the form of a private placement for an amount of 500 million Us dollars (about 750 million dinars) on behalf of the Tunisian State at the following conditions:
-Interest rate: 2.5% payable annually
-Maturity: 5 years
-Maturity date: 18 April 2017
-Payment date: 18 April 2017 all at once
The national economic and financial situation: main trends up to 16 April 2012.